Friday, November 30, 2007

Has Hillary Peaked?


For a while she was seen as having a virtual lock on the Democratic presidential nomination. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, that was then, this is now and she still has a lot of "now" left before Dems decide who will run for them in 2008.

Hillary's problem isn't money or profile. It certainly isn't Bill. It's the American people. They don't like her. It's not that they disagree with her policies, they just find her disagreeable. When Zogby reports that fully 50% of Americans say they would "never" vote for her, a number that's trending upwards, Hillary slips from the asset column into the liability column for the Democrats.

Worse still, she continues to bleed. She led Obama by 23 points in September, that's now down to 14 and falling.

It's bold and ambitious having the two top candidates, a woman and a black, when Americans have never elected anyone but a white man to the job. But will it get the job done for the Democrats in November? Can the Dems afford to take the chance of losing the White House? If the Democrats field a black or a woman and that person loses in an election that is very much the Dems to lose, when will a woman or a black even be considered seriously again?

7 comments:

Joseph said...

Races always tighten, especially when they drag on this long. Same think is happening with Guilliani. I haven't seen this 14 point number you're referring to . . . care to be a bit more specific? National polls I've seen all week still show 20 point spread, which is hardly a marginal number. For that matter, neither is 14.

Mark my words - and I'll gladly stand for the derision if I'm wrong. It will be Hillary vs Guilliani. In my wildest dreams, I hope it will be Hillary vs Romney. But I doubt it. But it's not Obama time. The race may tighten, but he won't be the Democratic nominee this go-around.

The Mound of Sound said...

Well Joseph, you guess seems as good as anyone's, including mine.

Joseph said...

Very much agreed. I hope you didn't take my post wrong, it is obviously just my opinion.

Personally, I'd take any of the Democrats in this race over a continuation of the Republican rule that has drug down the US on so many levels.

I think Hillary or Obama could win. I'd love to see a Clinton / Obama ticket in any combination, though I think it's more likely to be Clinton / Obama than Obama / Clinton.

I really enjoy your blog a great deal so sorry if my response sounded snippy. What is this 14-point poll . . . I really haven't seen anything showing that range.

The Mound of Sound said...

No need to apologize, Joseph. I meant it when I said your guess is as good as mine. I'll try to find that 14-point poll reference tomorrow. Thanks for stopping by.

s.b. said...

No noe has ever lost a nomination with as less than as large a lead as she has had this late in the race. Ever. Iowa is a non issue, where delegates are split anyways. in the big ticket states she has a 30% lead. She is the democratic nominee, weather or not news outlets keep having to make up interesting slants to keep people reading their papers to sell their add space or not.

BTW her support is also rock solid at over 90% saying they will nt change their vote,whereas Obama's rock solid support is at about 60% of his polling numbers. Couple that with the fact that much of his support is also young and much less likely to show up than Clinton's older demographic of supporter and the numbers are really even much larger for her than they seem. She is it and has been for quite some time.

The Mound of Sound said...

S.B. you may be right but when was the last time someone went into the primaries with Hillary's edge and had 50% of the electorate saying they'd "never" vote for her? Hillary is dealing with some big and persistent negatives. She may be it for the Dems but I think there may be a lot of Repugs hoping so.

The Mound of Sound said...

Here's something else to keep in mind, SB. The latest Zogby poll shows that Hillary would lose to any one of the top five Republican presidential candidates. That's why Obama's numbers are closing in on her. She's already lost half the American electorate. And that's not to say that the other half would necessarily vote for her either.
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1393