Well it looks like our Furious Leader has found an issue he's prepared to hang an election on - Afghanistan. Word has it he's going to toss out a confidence motion calling for an extension of Canada's Afghan mission beyond 2009.
Sounds to me like Stephane Dion had better pull his thumb out and find a clear position he can explain to the Canadian public, a position they can support. I'm betting that's what Harpo believes Dion can't do and he plans to make the election a referendum on the Liberal leader. The way everything else is going for Lardo this is probably his best bet.
The first thing Dion needs to do is to ensure that his policy is viable. As Hillier has said we can't stay in Kandahar and not fight. It's bandit country and, unless Dion can get the Taliban to go away, they'll take over if we don't fight to defend our turf. Can't be any simpler.
Reconstruction? Sure, just as soon as we establish an adequate level of security. Oops, there we go again, fighting.
No, I think this is a "take it or leave it" question and the Libs are going to have to support the Cons or fall into line with the Dippers. I'm pretty sure that's what Harpo's thinking too.
Maybe it's time to reassess the whole business. Let's not get snowed by the Manley panel report. It's simply not reality based. An extra thousand soldiers and a few helicopters isn't going to secure Kandahar province, not even close. That's a political sop, nothing more, and Manley ought to be ashamed for playing Harper's stooge.
We could begin by asking what "success" in Afghanistan would look like and then contrast that with conditions on the ground to see what needs to be done to get there if that's even possible. What do we want out of this? What's our bottom line?
If our goal is simply to be a dutiful member of NATO, success or failure against the Taliban is irrelevant, the corrupt and chaotic central government is irrelevant, the Afghan security services that alienate the people in the countryside are irrelevant, the looming unrest and threats from the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Pakistan are irrelevant. Just by staying there, we succeed. Afghanistan may utterly fail but that doesn't matter.
If the Canadian people want a "goal oriented" approach then our participation in the NATO/ISAF mission becomes less significant and all the irrelevant considerations above suddenly become very meaningful. Suddenly it becomes relevant that we're not winning against the Taliban. It becomes relevant that the central government is corrupt and unviable. It becomes relevant that the Afghan security services are actually undermining our best efforts to build support among the Afghan people for their central government. The descent into violence and destabilizing religious extremism across the border in Pakistan becomes relevant.
So what we need is to engage the voting public on these issues, to make them see the fundamental flaws in the Afghan mission. The Canadian people have been kept in the dark about this little war and that's understandable - the less they know the better it is for Lardo. The same goes for Hillier. Then there's John Manley. Manley has done Harpo an enormous favour, a shield that Stevie can hide behind and a club he can use to bludgeon Dion.
Working around Harpo, Hillier and Manley will be tough. It'll require a clear message and solid communication with the voting public and I'm not sure the Libs can manage either challenge. Their message is muddled and indecisive and, as for a communicator, well it's Stephane Dion.
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