Within just a few decades, Canadian food production could become dependent on two countries - one Communist, one Muslim.
Modern, industrial agriculture is entirely dependent on phosphorus-based fertilizers and Canada is almost entirely dependent on imported phosphorites. The Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan scored rights to 39% of America's phosphate reserves but those reserves are rapidly dwindling.
A 1998 report by UBC prof. Kurt Grimm noted that American phosphate reserves could be exhausted by around 2020 at today's extraction rates. However the rates Grimm was working on in 1998 have been superceded by phosphate demands for fertilizer-intensive corn ethanol production.
"...In simple terms, the world's breadbasket may soon depend upon imported phosphorite ! And where does this phosphorite lie ? About 60% of the global phosphorite reserves lie in a rich belt extending from the Middle East into North Africa, a geological realm termed the South Tethys (note in December 2002: see Grimm et al., 2000 and references by Pufahl et al. on my reference list for more on the South Tethys Phosphorite Giant). The great majority - 52% of the reserve - lies in Morocco, with substantial economic deposits in the former Spanish Sahara. Guerrilla fighters opposed to Morocccan authority in the Spanish Sahara - and backed by Libya and Algeria - clashed with the Moroccans until a 1991 ceasefire agreement. A proviso of the cease fire was a referendum on the sovereignty of the disputed, phosphate-rich territory. To date an agreement concerning voter eligibility has not been reached and the election has yet to occur (Brazier, 1998).
"The Moroccan example brings several points to light: 1) Enormous economic phosphorite reserves exist in Morocco; 2) The demand projections for rock phosphorite and their proximity to markets make these deposits an enormous economic asset; 3) The linkage of non-renewable resources and profit potential of these deposits in this developing region pose the possibility of a one nation cartel and/or future armed struggles over these gigantic reserves.
"Think about it. Today, the supply and demand of oil makes the global economy go-round. When the Middle Eastern petroleum cartel (OPEC) flexed its muscles in the late 1970's, economies stuttered and the world lined up for gas. The emerging scenario is neither alarmist nor nationalistic, but highlights authentic concerns of planetary scale. Diminishing phosphate resources, exponential growth of the human population, and even steeper demand for rock phosphate in many developing nations as a more western-style, high protein diet is adopted sharpens the focus. Herring and Stowaser (1991) considered some of these factors, and concluded that by 2020, rock phosphorite may be the keystone resource of the world economy."
There is a growing awareness that "phosphate shock" is coming soon to the world market. The question is whether we should be squandering North American supplies on corn ethanol in the meantime. Phosphate prices rose from $300 to $400 per ton last year and are soon expected to break $800.
Modern, industrial agriculture is entirely dependent on phosphorus-based fertilizers and Canada is almost entirely dependent on imported phosphorites. The Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan scored rights to 39% of America's phosphate reserves but those reserves are rapidly dwindling.
A 1998 report by UBC prof. Kurt Grimm noted that American phosphate reserves could be exhausted by around 2020 at today's extraction rates. However the rates Grimm was working on in 1998 have been superceded by phosphate demands for fertilizer-intensive corn ethanol production.
"...In simple terms, the world's breadbasket may soon depend upon imported phosphorite ! And where does this phosphorite lie ? About 60% of the global phosphorite reserves lie in a rich belt extending from the Middle East into North Africa, a geological realm termed the South Tethys (note in December 2002: see Grimm et al., 2000 and references by Pufahl et al. on my reference list for more on the South Tethys Phosphorite Giant). The great majority - 52% of the reserve - lies in Morocco, with substantial economic deposits in the former Spanish Sahara. Guerrilla fighters opposed to Morocccan authority in the Spanish Sahara - and backed by Libya and Algeria - clashed with the Moroccans until a 1991 ceasefire agreement. A proviso of the cease fire was a referendum on the sovereignty of the disputed, phosphate-rich territory. To date an agreement concerning voter eligibility has not been reached and the election has yet to occur (Brazier, 1998).
"The Moroccan example brings several points to light: 1) Enormous economic phosphorite reserves exist in Morocco; 2) The demand projections for rock phosphorite and their proximity to markets make these deposits an enormous economic asset; 3) The linkage of non-renewable resources and profit potential of these deposits in this developing region pose the possibility of a one nation cartel and/or future armed struggles over these gigantic reserves.
"Think about it. Today, the supply and demand of oil makes the global economy go-round. When the Middle Eastern petroleum cartel (OPEC) flexed its muscles in the late 1970's, economies stuttered and the world lined up for gas. The emerging scenario is neither alarmist nor nationalistic, but highlights authentic concerns of planetary scale. Diminishing phosphate resources, exponential growth of the human population, and even steeper demand for rock phosphate in many developing nations as a more western-style, high protein diet is adopted sharpens the focus. Herring and Stowaser (1991) considered some of these factors, and concluded that by 2020, rock phosphorite may be the keystone resource of the world economy."
There is a growing awareness that "phosphate shock" is coming soon to the world market. The question is whether we should be squandering North American supplies on corn ethanol in the meantime. Phosphate prices rose from $300 to $400 per ton last year and are soon expected to break $800.
2 comments:
somewhat related - have you read anything on the Doosday Vault for storing seeds to prevent loss of biodiversity essential to our survival? Hill Times had an article this week, but it also appeared about a month ago in MSM - can't remember which paper.
Yes, the Doomsday vault is a good idea - if it works. Let's just hope it's never needed.
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