Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Even Canada's Military Brass Get It - Finally!

We're on the war path, the actual road to war, and it's damned well time Messrs. Harper, Layton and Rae came to their senses.

Canada's Department of National Defence has run the numbers and, just like their counterparts at the Pentagon and British Ministry of Defence before them, concludes that energy shortages, water shortages and climate change could spark wars within the next 15-years.   Well, duh!

"Global reserves of crude oil could become problematic by 2025," wrote Maj. John Sheahan in a draft version of the report, Army 2040: First Look. "This implies that (barring the discovery of significant new reserves, and barring the adequate adoption of substitute fossil fuels or alternative fuel and energy sources) critical energy shortages will develop in the time frame of (and perhaps prior to) 2025."

The report noted that alternative fuels and energy may not be enough to respond to rising demand for energy that is forcing oil production to reach its capacity — a threat commonly referred to as "peak oil."

"There can be little doubt that unrestricted access to reliable energy supplies is a global strategic issue, one for which, recently, numerous nations have been willing to fight, and have indeed done so," said the report, released to Postmedia News through an Access to Information request. "Thus the trend that envisions depletion of fossil fuels such as crude oil in coming decades may also contribute to international tensions if not violent conflict."

Sheahan is part of a Canadian team of analysts led by Lt.-Col. Michael Rostek, who are researching long-term planning scenarios for the military. Members of the team said earlier this spring that they had submitted their analysis to senior military officials who are still reviewing the work.

The analysis also warns that, even under conservative estimates, up to 60 countries could fall into a category of water scarcity or stress by 2050, making the natural resource "a key source of power" or a "basis for future conflict."

The draft report said that despite some "vigorous debates" about the pace, cause, magnitude and impacts of global warming, there "can be no further debate that global climate change is occurring." It would turn the phenomenon into a "shock" and not just a driver of change, the report said.

Crop failures resulting in mass migrations and starvation, along with rising sea levels from melting ice caps and other factors, would be among the impacts.

"These sorts of changes could lead to impacts resulting in the abandonment of large urban and cropland areas, further aggravating a broad range of existing resource scarcities," said the report.

...]The report] predicted four possible scenarios for the future, including one in which Canada would be at the forefront of a prosperous green economy that favours clean energy, environmental protection and promotes improving living standards around the world.

But they said the path would depend on policy decisions made by governments today.
 There.   Now we have it from Canada's own military analysts.   Climate change is real and it's going to be a real killer and almost before you know it.   Canada is long overdue for some serious thinking, some serious planning and some serious adaptation strategies that pay heed to not only what is coming our way directly but impacts we will sustain in fallout from catastrophes elsewhere.   Our future depends "on policy decisions made by governments today."   As in today, now, not ten years from now, not when 'we get around to it.'   Now.   Today.
So please Steve, please Jack, please Bob - pull your self-satisfied thumbs out of your arses and start working for our country and our people.   We've already wasted time we couldn't afford to squander.   Invaluable time has been lost and in the process we've already foreclosed some adaptation opportunities we'll never get back.   You hacks want to govern as though Canada was still in the 80s.  You can't do that anymore and we can't let you.   We're in a new reality, one that ushers in truly existential threats for which we may pay dearly if we do not give this our full and immediate attention.


opit said...

The Yanks have been shutting out the Middle East oilfields as far as China and USSR are concerned as best they could : oil is the strategic military supply that impelled Japan into WW II when the US cut them off. Most still don't know that the Beaufort Sea and North Dakota have black gold overflowing past all dreams of avarice.
Anthropogenic Global Warming ? I still think it's a crock. Climate change ? Water Wars ? Yes, indeed.

'Deployment of 'green technology' ? Find some. Seriously. And no payola to the IPCC reducing fiscal options will help.

Oemissions said...

we probably have to wait until a tornado hits the Parliament bldgs

The Mound of Sound said...

The reality, Opit, is that it no longer matters much what anyone thinks about anthropogenic global warming. The Right successfully transformed that into a diversion to avoid having to deal with the unquestionable impacts of climate change. To them, adaptation to climate change is as repugnant as abandoning fossil fuels. And so we go on. You're old enough to hold no illusions about the brevity of 15-years.

The only significant political entity in our Parliament demanding meaningful action was exterminated by the NDP in the last election. The rest - CPC, NDP, LPC are worse than useless.

What I find remarkable are the self-styled "progressives" who remain faithful to parties that undermine the future of our people. Their version of progressivism is a dark farce at best.

opit said...

"remain faithful to parties that undermine the future of our people"

Party politics is a 'Heads, I win, Tails, You Lose" arrangement co-opted at will by the necessities implicit in campaign finances. That was finally the selling point for the Council of Canadians : it's hopeless trying to beat the system on its own terms. We need intel.

"Dark farce" ? LOL
Try the narco-kleptocracy variant descriptor of our Thieves in Power...basically unchanged for centuries.

Some time spent finding out about Sibel Edmonds at her Boiling Frogs - or at BradBlog - should start to remind you about Air America from Vietnam days. Not much has changed according to the Russians, though Sibel blew the whistle on what looks like Turkish subversion of the U.S. government. I'm sure the truth is more subtle than that. Poppy trade profits blown up by jacking the street price by harassing competitive suppliers should be quite respectable.
Speaking of which : the 'killing of Osama bin Laden' ( likely as truthful a tale as that of 9/11 ) has twists and turns navigated by few.
See what you make of the results of a Search I made a while back for "Bush family holdings Afghanistan"

Anonymous said...

"What I find remarkable are the self-styled "progressives" who remain faithful to parties that undermine the future of our people. Their version of progressivism is a dark farce at best" How true, how true. I wonder what the Canadian Government did with the 20 billion dollars the South Korean Government paid to them for a gas field off the Northern Coast of Canada. That took place this past February. That could have been a chunk of money used to build alternative energery. Have you ever thought the Canadian Government is waiting for God to descend and fix everything? Dah!! Dishearted.

The Mound of Sound said...

Anon, I wasn't aware of the South Korean deal. Can you tell us more?

I wouldn't be shocked to learn that Harper and a few of his stalwarts are just fine with apocalyptic scenarios, figuring they've got reserved seats on the Rapture chopper out of Saigon. Who knows? I do, however, think their neglect of the future of today's young Canadians and the generations to follow is abjectly criminal.

BTW, a point I omitted from this story. The DND report has been kicking around for a while, presumably suppressed. It only surfaced as a result of a Freedom of Information demand. I'm sure it's not the sort of thing Harper wants on the public's mind.

Boris said...

Hmm. I'd be keen to see how wars are fought by groups suffering critical oil and water shortages. Modern mechanised war requires vast quantities of the stuff.

The Mound of Sound said...

Well Boris you might consider the standoff now in place in Arunachal Pradesh. This northernmost Indian state holds the headwaters to several key Himalayan rivers. While India occupies it, China considers the territory its own. Both nations have masses military forces along its borders.

There'll always be enough fuel for warfighting. Your ambulance may not be available when you need it, but that F-35 will be soaring overhead.