The impetus, even among relatively progressive governors, to find ways to re-open the economy, carries the blended scent of necessity and desperation. Life must go on even at the cost of life itself.
The sense I have of what they're contemplating is a system of abrupt starts and stops. Get people back to work but, if the virus comes storming back, it's everybody sheltering in place again. On-off-on-off-on again.
A new research paper warns we'll be needing measures such as social-distancing well into 2022.
The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that a one-time lockdown will not be sufficient to bring the pandemic under control and that secondary peaks could be larger than the current one without continued restrictions.
One scenario predicted a resurgence could occur as far in the future as 2025 in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment.
Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study, said: “Infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people. Unless there is some enormously larger amount of herd immunity than we’re aware of … the majority of the population is still susceptible.
“Predicting the end of the pandemic in the summer [of 2020] is not consistent with what we know about the spread of infections.”What emerges from this paper and others like it is that our future hinges on the timely development of an effective vaccine and the challenge of vaccinating the population globally.
Has anyone heard what the anti-vaxxers have to say about this?