Can Musharraf Survive - Washington?

The U.S. has a rich history of unseating foreign leaders it no longer considers desirable, if their countries have particular strategic value.

Perhaps Pervez Musharraf should crack open a few history books for there are signs that Washington may be looking for his successor.

In some ways Mushie resembles the late South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem who ruled that country from 1955 until 1963. Diem was originally Washington's guy because he at least claimed to be tough on communists. Over time, his lustre wore off. Diem swept aside his opposition and suppressed religious dissent. His ability or will to combat the communists came to be questioned and it was feared he might actually strike a deal with Ho Chi Minh. His seemed peoccupied with just holding onto power. See any similarities yet? He had to go and so the CIA contacted Diem's generals and gave Washington's blessings to a coup.

In an eerie echo of that past, the New York Times reports that a host of sources have said that Washington is going to the generals again, this time Musharraf's generals.

Several senior administration officials said that with each day that passed, more administration officials were coming around to the belief that General Musharraf’s days in power were numbered and that the United States should begin considering contingency plans, including reaching out to Pakistan’s generals.

More than a dozen officials in Washington and Islamabad from a number of countries spoke on condition of anonymity because of the fragility of Pakistan’s current political situation. The doubts that American officials voiced about whether General Musharraf could survive were more pointed than any public statements by the administration, and signaled declining American patience in advance of Mr. Negroponte’s trip.

Officials involved in the discussions in Washington said the Bush administration remained wary of the perception that the United States was cutting back-room deals to install the next leader of Pakistan. “They don’t want to encourage another military coup, but they are also beginning to understand that Musharraf has become part of the problem,” said one former official with knowledge of the debates inside the Bush administration.

That shift in perception is significant because for six years General Musharraf has sought to portray himself, for his own purposes, as the West’s best alternative to a possible takeover in Pakistan by radical Islamists.

"Don't want to encourage another military coup," really? If you don't want to encourage it, you don't reach out to a top general's subordinates. This sounds very much like a deliberately leaked message to Mushie to get out or be deposed. It sounds very much like an ultimatum.

Then there's the opposition, Bhutto in particular. She may not be Washington's favourite but any sign that Musharraf's support is waning can only energize her efforts to remove him. Yet, in reaching out to Mushie's generals, Washington appears to be indicating a preference for continued, military rule in the turbulent wake of Musharraf's departure.

Don't write Musharraf off just yet. He's shrewed and can be very tough when it suits him and he's shown himself perfectly willing to stand up to the likes of Condoleeza Rice. But still, things are not going his way.