Iran's Best Defence - Oil

It's pretty much a given that Dick Cheney is in a state of high fibrilation over his near irresistible desire to bomb the hell out of Iran.

Bush/Cheney see Iran as an emerging nuclear threat to the stability of the Middle East and Israel especially. The consensus is that Iran is at least five years away from being able to build a nuclear weapon but Bush/Cheney know they've only got just over a year to deal with it before they have to hand over control of America's armed forces to the next administration. To them it's bomb now or, perhaps, bomb never.

There was a time when Washington could pretty much do as it liked with relative impunity. Not any longer. The irony is that it's been Bush/Cheney and their cabal of nationalists and neo-cons who've steadily sapped America's strength in just a few short years. They've left their country much weakened and vulnerable.

America's army is stuck in Iraq and running out of steam. By some accounts it is nearly broken through the exhaustion of its troops and the disintegration of its equipment. With two wars underway - Iraq and Afghanistan - it cannot field enough soldiers for either. The answer, instituting a draft, is simply beyond Bush/Cheney's remaining political power. With the American public already soured on Iraq and nothing but failure to show for the lives and treasure squandered there, Congress would revolt before it would tolerate a draft.

Bush/Cheney have sapped their country's economic strength through their military adventures and they're even providing for a 9.5% increase in the military's budget (exclusive of war costs) for next year. Their entire war is being financed by running massive deficits that are propped up by foreign lenders. At the same time they've cut taxes for the rich. They'll leave their country dependent on foreign lenders (a perverse form of reverse foreign aid) and the generations to follow saddled with an enormous debt.

If you've read any of the American newspapers lately you may have noticed that the US is just now waking up to the new energy realities. Oil, soon expected to break $100 a barrel, is now getting their attention. What does it mean? What does the future hold for the US? These are the prospects now being churned over in the American press. Why, what could it possibly mean for the nation most dependent on foreign oil? Simple answer: a lot.

Like America, China and India are also scrambling to get a big hunk of the world's dwindling oil supplies. Their needs are to fuel their economic growth. America's needs are to simply maintain its status quo. There isn't enough to go around so what is available goes to those willing and able to pay the market price. Hardly a comfortable situation for a country with an already serious debt problem.

This is where Iran comes in. America simply cannot afford the consequences of bombing Iran. Even if Iran did nothing in response, oil prices would go through the roof. And there is much Iran can do. With its arsenal of modern, mobile cruise missiles it can slam the door on oil tanker movements through the Gulf. It can keep that door shut tight for a long time, more than enough to trigger a global recession. America would fall victim to its own bombs and the damage, at least in part, could be permanent.

This is not to say that Bush/Cheney still may not go ahead and attack Iran. It's not that they haven't been warned repeatedly about how such an attack might backfire. For all of that they've shown themselves indifferent to reality plenty of times already. It's what happens when you let children play soldiers.