Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Nikiforuk - Chaos the New Normal of World Oil Markets and Canada Hasn't Got a Clue.

When you're producing a low-grade fossil fuel - high-carbon, high-cost, low profit margins - fluctuations in world oil prices hit hard. Such is the fate of Alberta and its Athabasca bitumen pits.

Andrew Nikiforuk writes that the good old days of relative price stability in oil markets are good old days, i.e. they're over. Worse yet, Ottawa and the provinces are totally unprepared for a future of oil price chaos.

As the current global oil glut shakes up petro states around the world, oil prices are becoming more volatile than Donald Trump tweets.
Neither Canada, now the dumb owner of a marginal 65-year-old pipeline, nor Alberta, a key exporter of bitumen, a cheap refinery feedstock, has paid much attention to this revolution.

As a consequence Canada has no strategy to deal with the new normal of highly volatile oil prices.
Government incompetence explains the hew and cry in Alberta about its overproduction crisis and the various proposals to solve it, ranging from the purchase of rail cars (a bad idea) to the decision to order companies to cut production of heavy oil by about 325,000 barrels a day (a sensible idea).

Alberta’s panic attack is based on the idea that bitumen from the province’s oilsands producers is selling at a discount because of a lack of pipeline capacity.

The reality is that the dramatic 30-per-cent drop in oil prices since the beginning of October, from more than US$70 to US$50, is upsetting oil exporters, producers and markets around the world.

Different kinds of oil fetch different prices, based on their quality and transportation costs. And all are experiencing dramatic price drops. Alberta’s bitumen, a cheap refinery feedstock, is not the only crude languishing during a global market glut.

...Too much price volatility can cripple the entire global machine, and low prices for oil can trigger even greater disruption, argues Gail Tverberg, an actuary who writes about “Our Finite World.”
...Tom Therramus, the pen name of a U.S. academic, argues that oil price volatility is a new cyclical trend that has been increasing rapidly over the last 15 to 20 years. 
Writing in the blog Oil-Price.Net, he documents this new development. “Wave-like surges,” or spikes in price volatility, tend to erupt every three or four years like clockwork. In addition stock market volatility tends to follow oil price leaps and falls by six to 12 months. 
This new volatility in oil prices is analogous to other trends like the increasing frequency of wildfires in forests destabilized by drought and climate change. 
And oil price volatility is as dangerous as a wildfire. “Unpredictability in oil price, resulting from rapid changes (up or down) over short time spans, is bad news because oil, and more broadly fossil fuel, is the commodity that is most essential to the operation of a modern economy,” Therramus writes.
...The Harvard Business Review now suggests that everyone should get used to “faster, shallower price rotations based on changes in production.”
For more than a decade the Alberta government has known that bitumen pricing is 60 per cent more volatile than prices for higher quality West Texas Intermediate. But it did little to buffer its economy or its industry. 
...The U.S. fracking revolution has played a significant role in creating a temporary oil glut and destabilizing prices. Last summer the U.S. pumped 11.6 million barrels a day as its oil production surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia. The U.S., still a net importer of oil, hasn’t been the world’s largest crude oil producer since 1973. 
This novel increase has largely been achieved by shattering dense shale rocks with the brute force technology of hydraulic fracking. 
Some U.S. analysts predict the shale boom will last until 2040. But other forecasters such as David Hughes and Art Berman predict the shale gale will peak much sooner — within 10 years — due to high depletion rates, increasingly hard to extract resources and high costs.
In the meantime, a global surge in oil production, largely driven by fracking in North America, has disrupted oil markets repeatedly and added to oil price volatility. Overproduction in shale formations contributed to the oil price rout of 2014 and the collapse of oil prices this fall. 
If Canada had paid any attention to the shale gale over the last decade, it would have limited bitumen production rather than let regulators rubber stamp one oilsands project after another. Competent politicians would have encouraged limited refining near the oilsands instead of advocating for unlimited pipeline expansion. 
Costly, hard-to-produce oil means diminishing returns 
The quantity and quality of oil produced has changed dramatically, meaning diminished returns for all players. Mining bitumen in the boreal forest or fracking tight oil from the Permian require complex and expensive engineering. 
Most of Canada’s bitumen production comes from high-cost steaming operations that use enormous amounts of natural gas (almost one-third of Canada’s annual supply) to boil water to produce steam that is pumped underground to increase bitumen production. In the U.S., about half of all oil production comes from dense shale formations requiring high-cost fracking and horizontal drilling. 
Bitumen and light oil from dense shale formations share a common trait — poor quality that adds to the cost of refining them. Bitumen requires upgrading while light oil poses a different set of refinery challenges, including contamination with paraffin waxes and hydrogen sulfide. 
French geologist Jean Laherrère notes that shale oil is of substantially lower quality than conventional oil. So an increase in the number of barrels being produced does not mean an equivalent increase in energy value. 
The more energy and capital that technological society throws at oil extraction, the more fragile it becomes. A hundred years ago companies drilled a hole and oil gushed from the ground. Now they are smashing concrete-like formations with extreme force or melting oilsands with steam to coax out lesser-quality oil
In the process, the world’s oil and gas industry has gone further and further into debt to cover the cost of mining these extreme resources.
Low prices and more volatile pricing are not only big problems for the industry, but even bigger problems for oil-exporting states dependent on oil revenues.

...The global economy is failing, with diminishing returns for the 99 per cent. Elites around the world are fighting among themselves over the remaining spoils. 
Economic stagnation has plunged oil prices into chaotic volatility. (Or has the irrational pursuit of extreme resources such as bitumen and tight oil helped to unhinge the global economy?) 
Canada promoted oilsands production based on forecasts of $100-a-barrel oil. The price reached that level in 2008, and then plunged. Volatility has ruled since. Canada and Alberta have pretended bitumen, a cheap refinery feedstock, would command the same prices as higher quality oil
Global markets have delivered the truth. Garbage crude is always garbage crude until you add value by upgrading and refining it. And when prices swing, low-quality oil takes the biggest hit.

Companies can compensate for oil price volatility in the short term by hedging, storing the product or by operating refineries and adding value. Governments can curtail production, as Alberta Premier Rachel Notley reluctantly did. (And yes, the price of heavy oil rallied.)
But the increasing waves of oil price volatility ultimately create political and financial instability. Petro states then practice extreme politics to contain the resulting unrest. And the U.S. is one of the world’s most conflicted and dysfunctional petro states. 
Technology does not create energy. It merely accelerates the depletion of resources by providing more complex, costly ways of extracting what poorer hydrocarbons remain. 
And no, it’s not just fossil fuel resources that are depleted. Cheap oil lets companies build bigger boats with bigger engines to use bigger nets to catch smaller fish, even as stocks are destroyed. 
These energy dynamics also explain the repeated global political failure to face the disruptive anarchy of climate change. Minds conditioned by Titanic economic thinking have lost all connections to traditional instincts for survival, and don’t believe in icebergs. 
Just as they ignore the reality that, in the absence of courageous political leadership, complex energy systems, like cod stocks, can collapse without much warning.


Jay Farquharson said...

It’s actually not that complicated.

Refine at the Tar Sands. Because dilbit is roughly 50% condensate, 25% petcoke and 25% heavy crude, 50% of the shipping costs can be saved and expensive condensate isn’t needed.

The petcoke instead of being sold at a loss, mostly to the Koch Brothers, can be used as infil for Tar Sands reclaimation.

Because Alberta would be selling finished products, rather than dilbit, product would sell at the global market price, rather than at a steep discount.

Because Alberta would be selling finished products, pipelines to tidewater would make fiscal sense, because there is an existing global market.

Based on existing dilbit refineries, refining at the Tarsands, would create about 42,000 really good long term jobs, and by eliminating the need to buy and remove condensate, deal with the petcoke waste, would give Alberta refineries a significant cost advantage over existing specialized dilbit refineries.

Had Alberta gone this morning way, it probably would have created 36,000 high paid contract construction jobs right in Alberta’s skill set for a decade or more.

John's Aghast said...

Pssst. Pass this along to Notely and Trudough. If they hurry they might be able to squeeze through before renewables make the stuff useless.

Owen Gray said...

Peter Loughheed wanted to diversify Alberta's economy. He wanted Alberta to produce finished products. Those who followed him put all their bets on oil. It was a classic resource trap.