Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Sorry, But Those Jobs Aren't Coming Back
Say what he will, and we know by now that Donald Trump will say just about anything,Trump's promise of many hundreds of thousands of new, high paying jobs is nonsense. It ain't gonna happen. He's the wrong man at the wrong time.
Those outsourced/offshored jobs that he's promising to repatriate? They're not coming back because the place they left no longer exists. We've moved on.
Those jobs are for low-cost labour, not middle class American labour. The high priced help, well, they're already getting squeezed out by computerization and automation.
The Globe and Mail has a thoroughly depressing, 10-page list of nearly 500 job categories and the risk each will succumb to automation over the next 10 to 20 years.
Clerical accounting staff are hooped. They face a 98% loss of jobs. That's light years beyond just "screwed." Admin staff can expect to see 96% of their jobs rendered redundant. No great career future in those areas.
Those wonderful manufacturing jobs, the positions Trump is after? Sorry, 96% downturn. Overall, labour, skilled and non, is not facing a bright future. And, yes, that includes most trades.
Oh but there is good news. Lawyers are looking at a paltry 3.5% decline. Yeah, lawyers!
Remind me why our federal government still considers industrial-scale immigration to be a good thing if an unemployment tsunami is heading our way.
As for me, I don't believe all this doom and gloom. I don't think Trump will have much luck restoring all those offshored jobs. It's just that these projections don't take contingencies into account - plague and pestilence, famine, bio-error, climate catastrophes, revolution, even major war. Those can all be ways of hitting the "reset" button.
The Black Death is an inspiring example. From 1346 to 1353 it killed off some 200-million people. Paltry as that number sounds in a world of 7.5 billion today, humankind weighed in at just 370-million in 1350 so it was a pretty decent hit.
Studies have shown that, in the aftermath, the survivors lived pretty well. Everybody seemed to have plenty of everything - and at everyday low prices. Empty houses go cheap. Labour was in short supply, wages went up commensurately.
There's only one way to end this post: