I had always imagined that the first major water wars would come in 10-15 years between India and China as the Himalayan glaciers that feed both countries' key agricultural rivers recede.
There are indications, however, that India and Pakistan could come to blows over water much sooner than that.
Pakistan, like India and China, is drying up. Pakistan's water availability has decreased to 1,200 cubic meters per person from 5,000 cubic meters in 1947 and is forecast to plunge to 800 cubic meters by 2020.
Now India and Pakistan are in a winner take all race to dam the Kishenganga river in Kashmir and both sides are angrily pointing fingers at each other:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KA13Df01.html
2 comments:
I didn't realize that the conflict in Kashmir related to water shortage. The whole water thing is scary.
The water issue is just one of several contentious problems between Pakistan and India.
I try to keep an eye on the water issue in South Asia and the Far East. We don't tend to hear much about it in our media but it's big news over there.
It strikes me that the economic miracle that both China and India covet so may be crushed by the water question between now and 2025.
There are forecasts that India's main agricultural rivers could be transformed into seasonal rivers, full and usable only during the monsoons when irrigation isn't required. The decline of the Ganges alone could cause India to lose something like 30% of its grain production.
Freshwater shortages or outright droughts could jeopardize both countries and leave them vulnerable to widespread social unrest.
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