Monday, October 07, 2019

Anybody Want to Start a Pool?

I wonder what the voter turnout will be this year.

Since Confederation we've averaged just over 70 per cent. The highest turnout came during the Diefenbaker/Pearson era when 79 per cent came out to vote ('58, '60, '63).

The lowest turnout was just under 59 per cent when Harper defeated the Dion Liberals in 2008. Three years later, 61 per cent turned out to see Harper trounce the Ignatieff Liberals who dropped 34 seats, handing Harper his ill-deserved majority.

In 2015 the turnout bumped up to just over 68 per cent as Canadians voted for the fresh-faced Justin Trudeau and/or against Stephen Harper.

So what do you think it'll be this time? There's no hated Harper this time around but no unsullied Liberal either. We've got a 'summer help' counter-clerk up against a disappointing school marm. The campaign has been a pissing contest between Scheer and Trudeau. Nothing there to inspire a big turnout. If there was a "none of the above" option on the ballot, Mr. None might take it in a landslide.

I just don't see a big voter turnout this time around. What do you think?


Anonymous said...

61% - same as 2004 & 2011. It gives me no pleasure to note that in both those years low turnout led to Con wins.


Trailblazer said...

Call me a sceptic .
This is the only election I have experienced where those around me wished it over by day 4.
59%.I think there will be a minority Government or at least I hope there will be!
There is a lot of confusion by the voters caused mainly by their indifference to the choices of those likely to succeed.
When we have poor choices ala USA and Trump vs Clinton WTF would you vote for?


John's aghast said...


Trailblazer said...

After tonight's debate I am firmly in the camp of Saddam Hussein.
Until the USA steps in we would at least have direction!


Darn, i miss that guy.

Gyor said...

Jagmeet Singh won every English debate. We will see if it moves the needle on polls.

zoombats said...

Oh if we only had electoral reform in place and the last election was the final FPP. Turn out and vote Green just because. Let's at least give them the chance to try their promises.

the salamander said...

.. will say 55% turnout..

There are so many variables in play.. aging boom generation.. are the millenials awoke.. or awake ? Liberals and 'Conservatives' get their auto portion.. NDP.. who knows or who cares? Green another mystery .. Bernier a joke.. but Quebec seats will play huge, Maritimes a mystery, The west - excluding BC is part of the auto Conservative vote idiocy.. so BC is very 'swing'

Seems there is a kinda 'town hall' in our riding tonight.. Boss declines to attend, so I will go alone.. we were at the Leaf Blues game last night and she wants to wallow in the St Louis win.. and get an early night's sleep.. she just pulled the plug on a national music tour.. and faces a heavy resched rebudget day.. gives not a shite who 'won' the debate.. I just painting my son's reno.. easy.. will pretend I'm Picasso.. or even better, Tom Thomson ! Not sure any of the so called 'leaders' even know who he is or was.. or really did

Last word.. what is this with people talking over and under each other in dubious debate.. Is it a matter of .. or point of pride to do so.. its a huge turn off.. a complete waster, its rude and crude. It reminds of contemporary Question Period.. and posturing to media.. and to a supposed 'base'.. useless Public Service

The Mound of Sound said...

On demographics I suspect a high turnout, especially in the youth vote, will be bad news for everyone except the Greens. Young people have been mobilized by the recent "school strike" movement, the Extinction Rebellion and the media focus on what climate change holds in store for them two, three or four decades from now. My sense is that they're developing an awareness that they've been screwed, as Trump would say, "biggly."

Singh has been a late and convenient climate advocate but the NDP has, in typical fashion, sat on the fence until it figured out the utility of a climate change platform when nothing else it was peddling was working. He might get away with it, who knows.

Lulymay said...

I don't know, Mound. I remember in early Harper days when "youth" was out there, protesting this and that, complete with some darn good rock music, and then stayed home to watch Harper get a majority. I think these faux debates are more for the benefit of the media than us mealy mouthed voters. And what's with Weaver pulling the pin here in BC? Canada is still not advanced enough to elect a woman PM and Lizzie, while having some good ideas, needs to tone down the harpy side (that shrill voice really got to me after a while). The two PQ guys will be the spoilers, given the number of voters there and could actually end up being balance of power (and who will they sidle up to?) The Doug Ford effect could impact the Cons' fortunes in Ontario which might benefit the NDP more than Libs if voters are still mad at Wynn. The flatlanders appear to all have been vaccinated with a Conservative needle at birth so we know how that will fly. That leaves BC where rural smaller ridings usually go Con and urban ones flip around. Van Isle will probably lean more to Green. I don't see the Libs doing that well in Greater Van because of the pipeline issue. So, what have we got? a minority government with balance of power maybe split with 3 other parties? p.s.That whole "black face" has just been a contrived Con red herring in my opinion. Give me something with meat on the bones!!! (Sigh!)

The Mound of Sound said...

Lulymay, go back a few days to half-a-million climate change protesters flooding the streets of Montreal and hundreds of thousands of like-minded young people joining them in cities across the country. This time they're not pushing back against "mean Harper." They're in a fight for their lives, an inescapable reality we've never had to face.

As for Vancouver what I've read suggests the Liberals are faring better than I had hoped. JWR's riding, however, remains a toss up.

The island, yes, my dear island and the Gulf Islands may be the bastion of the Greens although there will be, as ever, a lot of orange 'strategic votes.' I think we need a wall.

As for Weaver it came out on the local news last night that what I'd heard via the grapevine was right. He's developed some sort of chronic condition that impairs his sense of balance. In politics that's enough to put you out to pasture.