The new Insights West online survey of 815 British Columbians suggests a strong animosity in the province towards the notion of a re-elected Conservative government.
The online survey of 815 British Columbians said 75 per cent of decided respondents, including close to half (43 per cent) of those who voted Tory in 2011, say it’s time for a change.
“In addition, 60 per cent of British Columbians say they would be ‘very upset’ if the Tories form the government again. The level of animosity towards a possible victory by either the Liberal Party or the NDP is significantly smaller (36 per cent and 33 per cent respectively),” according to Insight West.
That compares with 24 per cent favouring the Liberals, 22 per cent the Conservatives, and 12 per cent Elizabeth May’s Green Party.
If valid, the results would confirm University of B.C. political scientist Richard Johnston’s recent comment to The Vancouver Sun that “there’s a B.C. thing going on about Harper.”
The poll is consistent with recent data from various firms collected by CBC poll analyst Eric Grenier.
If those numbers held up it would result in an all-time best performance for the federal NDP, which took a record 37 per cent of the vote and the majority of B.C. seats in the 1988 election.
Grenier’s seat projection model suggests that these numbers would translate into an NDP landslide, taking 25 of the province’s 42 seats.
The Liberals would be second with 11 seats, the Conservatives third with five, and the Greens fourth with May’s Saanich-Gulf Islands seat.
If valid, the results would confirm University of B.C. political scientist Richard Johnston’s recent comment to The Vancouver Sun that “there’s a B.C. thing going on about Harper.”
The poll is consistent with recent data from various firms collected by CBC poll analyst Eric Grenier.
If those numbers held up it would result in an all-time best performance for the federal NDP, which took a record 37 per cent of the vote and the majority of B.C. seats in the 1988 election.
Grenier’s seat projection model suggests that these numbers would translate into an NDP landslide, taking 25 of the province’s 42 seats.
The Liberals would be second with 11 seats, the Conservatives third with five, and the Greens fourth with May’s Saanich-Gulf Islands seat.
6 comments:
Do online polls have any validity at all? I'd like to believe the premise that BC will vote out Harper but I won't hold my breath.
Is there a single Conservative caucus member who might make an acceptable PM?
No, there isn't. Harper has pushed many of the saner Conservatives out (James Moore being the latest, for instance), and his PMO has prevented any Con cabinet member from actually running their portfolio and making a name for themselves.
For the health of his party and the country Harper should have resigned, and delayed calling the election.
Maybe Harper called this early election in order to prevent a coming caucus revolt. The Duffy trial is exposing (again) how insanely poorly Harper runs his PMO. We know he would stay PM even if it hurt the country, but he'll stay PM even if it hurts his party. The man is loyal only to himself.
A caucus revolt? doubtful. they owe their paycheques to Steve. had they any intention of "dumping" steve it would have happened while Flaherty and Baird were still in caucus.
The cons were always pretty much a party of one and it worked for awhile but then they get sloppy. they forget it is a democracy and they started to make mistakes and the biggest one was steve forgot he wasn't king of Canada. Not all were loyal "servants".
Steve and some 60 of his M.P.s were in my opinion delusional. Belonging to the christian and missionary alliance church they believed the bible was "inerrant" and the second coming was "imminent". When you start with that base there will be trouble sooner or later.
heave the steve movement may grow and it may happen. people in B.C. may want him gone. they know what will happen to the coast of B.C. once all those tankers start moving around with all that tar. Then there is the small or not so small issue of Bill C-51, the new citizenship act, and the voting act. All three lead up to a lot of trouble for a province with a lot of people who have dual citizenship or are Canadians by choice. the voting act will disenfranchise millions in Canada. The citizenship act could result in Canadians by birth being deported by steve because they have violated steve's idea of whats right or wrong. This does not make for a democracy. It makes for a dictatorship. It may be why so many in B.C. want to heave the steve.
@ Toby - the article states that the online poll results were consistent with "data from various forms collected by CBC poll analyst Eric Grenier."
@ Chris - It is more than curious that Harper has groomed no one (or more) to succeed him. Flaherty is gone. Baird, Moore and MacKay, gone. Jason Kenney remains - but perhaps he wouldn't be acceptable to the social conservatives.
There's no question that Harper runs his party, his government and the country in his sole interests although it's only been in recent months that some pretty prominent media types seem to have caught on to it.
e.a.f. - It's interesting that the Con running in my re-jigged riding, John Duncan, is recycling his old "re-elect" campaign signs. He was never our MP before so the re-elect business is a bit galling. Maybe he doesn't want to get too deep in spending on this run. He might be in trouble.
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