It seems the Trudeau Liberals are in for a bumpy ride to the polls in next year's general elections.
When Trudeau marked his first Canada Day as prime minister, he was still enjoying his post-election honeymoon. The Liberals held a 16-point lead over the Conservatives and Trudeau's approval rating was 31 points higher than his disapproval score.
The honeymoon was over by the time his second Canada Day rolled around in 2017, but the Liberals were still in a strong position — ahead of the Conservatives by five points and with Trudeau's net approval rating at +11.
The Liberals held good leads in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada — the same kind of numbers that gave them a majority in 2015.
That's no longer the case.
The CBC Poll Tracker puts the Liberals at just under 35 per cent support, with the Conservatives at just over 34 per cent. The New Democrats, at 19 per cent, are up four to five points over where they stood on Canada Days past.We shouldn't have to be anxious about Scheer edging out Trudeau in 2019 but here we are. The next election was Trudeau's to lose and he screwed it up - royally.
Trudeau's retreat on electoral reform was unforgivable. His explanation unconvincing. On that alone, Trudeau deserves to get his ass handed to him.
Then there was all the talk - no, promises - about First Nations consultations, social licence, scrapping the rigged pipeline approvals issued by the egregiously "captured" National Energy Board. Lies, lies and lies. He's been lying about that damned pipeline virtually since the day he was sworn into office.
Trudeau argues "compromise" in pitting bitumen against the environment and rapidly worsening climate change. There's a compromise all right. He's chosen to compromise his promises on the environment to clear the way for a megapipeline to "tidewater." And, when that project foundered, there were Trudeau and Morneau writing a cheque to a sketchy Texas outfit to buy that pipeline. Every Canadian should be disgusted by that.
And so, if Trudeau loses his majority in 2019 or Scheer ekes out a minority, all the blame - every scrap of it - goes to Justin Trudeau.