Saturday, February 22, 2020

Is This What Trump Was Hoping For? Iranian Hard-Liners Score Decisive Election Win.

On January 3, a US drone was flying above Baghdad international airport when it launched a precision-guided missile at a vehicle carrying Iranian general, Qasem Suilemani, killing him and everyone else in the vehicle.
The U.S. gave shifting and contradictory rationales for killing Soleimani, initially claiming the attack was necessary to stop an "imminent attack", though later stated "We don't know precisely when and we don't know precisely where." Iran said it was an act of "state terrorism". Iraq said the attack undermined its national sovereignty, was a breach of its agreement with the U.S. and an act of aggression against its officials. On 5 January 2020, the Iraqi parliament passed a non-binding resolution to expel all foreign troops from its territory.
The assassination seems to have played out in today's Iranian parliamentary elections.
Iran’s conservatives are on the brink of a landslide victory in the country’s parliamentary elections as forecasts show them taking more than two-thirds of the seats. 
The reformists, the largest grouping in the outgoing parliament, have been decisively beaten, with predictions showing them taking only 17 seats in the 290-strong parliament. The principalists – or conservatives – were on course to take around 200 seats, including all 30 seats in the capital, Tehran, previously a stronghold of the reformers. 
Although they are a diverse group, many of the senior conservatives are former supporters of ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The result is a rebuff for those that had pushed for greater engagement with the west, and is likely to constrain Iran’s foreign policy options. The parliament could press for Iran to quit the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
As a general rule, people intend the logical and foreseeable consequences of their acts. Trump, however, may be too unhinged, too addled, too far gone not to grasp that the attack on that Iranian general would be a blow to moderate Iranians, centrists, and a huge blessing to the Mullahs. His military aides would certainly have warned him of this blowback but this is a president who just doesn't listen.


Anonymous said...

I don't see any reason to exempt Trump from the general rule. First, Trump is all about promoting conservative authoritarian governments. Second, if Iran quits the NPT, Trump will claim that he was right to pull the US out of the Iran deal. Win-win.


rumleyfips said...

Trump and the neolibs wanted regime change. Sorry boys.

The Disaffected Lib said...

Trump may be Putin's greatest coup. Trump undermines the US abroad at every turn. Some hate the guy, others find him unreliable, untrustworthy. America's sphere of influence, its hegemony, falters leaving the way open for Russia to advance in the Middle East and China to make inroads throughout Asia, Africa, even South America. He's certainly raised the profile of the North Korean dictatorship, the Kim clan. First Bush/Cheney and now Trump have made Iran the dominant power in its region. Blunder after blunder. He's fracturing Europe and weakening the North Atlantic alliance.

Whenever I hear one of these clowns go on about the "Deep State" it makes me realize there is no such thing. If there was, Pence would be president.

e.a.f. said...

the people of Iran have spoken. Trump's murder of the No 2 ranked person in the Iranian government did not go over well. My opinion, trump suffers from a form of dementia and makes stupid decisions. Its going to get a lot of
Americans killed one of these days.

Danneau said...

Eases the path to war, and the ultimate bone-spurred chicken hawk may yet get a war of his own.