Monday, October 06, 2008

Burying the Ghost of Bretton Woods


In 1944, with the war still raging, there was one nation that stood out among all others as the most powerful in the world - the United States of America. The US alone had the massively expanded, state of the art industrial base that would drive postwar reconstruction and so Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, was chosen as the site for the UN Monetary and Financial Conference. 44 allied nations gathered to formulate the postwar monetary policy (largely as determined by the US) which featured acceptance of things like the gold standard and institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the foundations for what we know today as the World Bank.

The biggest change since then was probably when Nixon killed the gold standard in 1971 which led the original signatories, and ultimately the world, to adopt the United States dollar as everyone's "reserve currency."

1944 to 2008, 64-years, a damned good run by any measure but the US meltdown may finally usher in a new global financial structure, one in which Washington is no longer calling the shots.

The loudest voice calling for change appears to be that of America's newest French buddy, Nicholas Sarkozy. Nick is demanding the abandonment of what he calls "speculative capitalism" (the American kind) to be replaced, under a system of global financial regulation, by something he calls "entrepreneurial capitalism."

Sarkozy wants action - now. He's calling for a summit next month of the G8 countries, together with the rest of the BRIC states (that would be Brazil, India and China) plus Indonesia and, somewhat curiously, Mexico, to hammer out a new structure, a new deal. Sarkozy says he wants nothing less than a "new financial world" with tough international regulation of securities, even hedge funds.

Obviously Nick must realize that America has, at the moment, the lamest "lame duck" president in memory. The next guy won't get his pens and stapler in the Oval Office until January and, even then, there'll be a bit of partying to get through before he'll want to swallow this bitter pill.

Yet there is a bit of a gun at America's head at the moment and a whole gaggle of angry foreign heads of state holding it there. I suspect that, implicit in the Sarkozy initiative, is nothing less than repudiation of the Bush Doctrine, that piece of bellicose, neoconservative claptrap spawned by the likes of Perle, Kristol, Kaufman, "nuke'em all" Poderhetz (a McCain advisor), Wolfowitz and others of their ilk.

While the rest of the world tolerated the Bush Doctrine mainly because it had no choice, the Frat Boy's abandonment of international law and rampage of unilateralism seriously undermined the legitimacy of American foreign policy. The whole lunacy is premised upon American military and economic supremacy to be maintained, by force when necessary, in perpetuity, perhaps the greatest attempt at defying gravity from a nation that's been fiscally levitating for three decades.

The era of rabid American exceptionalism began with Reagan and what was seen as the restoration of American pride and muscle. It reached its zenith under Bush II only to be shattered on a miserable little country, Iraq.

The whole, grandiose notion of American exceptionalism (we're number one, we're number one...) merged with the spread of Christian fundamentalism to become a very powerful force in directing American policy. Now the legs are being cut out from underneath it both internally and by an angry world increasingly unwilling to abide this nonsense any longer.

It will be fascinating to watch how the next American government - the next administration and Congress - respond to these demands. Nobody in either branch has had to think that hard in a lifetime. This may necessitate a huge change requiring Americans to see themselves and their country much differently than they ever have, much more clearly, more realistically.

Or, possibly, the US might just conjure up some way to ride out this storm and emerge with its financial and social structures intact even at the risk of being left behind by Europe and Asia.

In other words, this could play out a dozen different ways but one thing that's plain - Sarkozy has thrown down the gauntlet. The old "new world order" is all but finished.

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