Sunday, October 05, 2008

Pssst - I Almost Hope Steve Wins


In a way, I almost hope Steve Harper wins on October 14th. Not a majority, mind you, that'd be disastrous. I hope he wins about the same number of seats his Conservatives had when they called the election.

Rough times lie ahead and I'd like to see Steve stuck with them. He's reshaped the federal government these last two and a half years. He's made it more brittle, weaker, secretive. Steve and crafted something of a lean and mean "good times" government but, in the process, he's hobbled its ability to respond to the needs of Canadians in a downturn.

If Steve doesn't get a majority, he's made his mark as the guy who got the reins of power and couldn't go on to close the deal, couldn't make a majority happen. The conditions he orchestrated to trigger this election are as good as they could get for Steve Harper. The timing was perfect. The circumstances were as ideal as he could make them. I'm pretty sure that even Mr. Dion is on to him now and that no one will give him that chance to game an election again.

We appear to be heading into a tough time where we'll face, at the very least, the tail end of the fiscal hurricane that's expected to sweep through the United States. Of course our circumstances are better, our institutions stronger, but these guys purchase about 85% of our exports. That little gravy train has been very good indeed for Canada and we will feel it when it contracts.

You see, I think Steve is a one-trick pony. As Paul Martin said the other day, he's "clueless" about what to do in an economic downturn. With GST cut baubles, he's seriously defunded our federal government and left it vulnerable to a recession when Canadian government is expected to step in and cushion the landing.

Fair enough, but why should another party be saddled with Harper's electoral chicanery? Give him a minority and a taste of what it's like to have to govern Canada when everything isn't rosey. Harper, like Bush, was handed a government operating well in the black and turning healthy surpluses. He chose to play Good Times Steve with that revenue stream which I suspect explains why he's done nothing to prepare for an American meltdown and doesn't even want to discuss it.

Give him a minority, let Canadians see Bad Times Steve, and let us decide when to bring his government down next time, not him.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm still worried he might swing a majority, which is too frightening.

Too many echoes of "it not mattering who won the Presidential election" in 2000, a widespread belief at the time. Saw where that got the US.

I really hope Harper is no longer driving the agenda after Oct 14.

The Mound of Sound said...

We're all worried about a Harper majority given the way he's persistently abused his power in a minority. The way he stacked the deck on this election, I think we can consider it a victory if the Canadian people stick him with another minority.

Anonymous said...

Agreed.

I guess my point is in the final week I am more concerned that people go back to assuming a minority is a given. I'd much rather well-intentioned voters recognize a majority is possible.

For folks who pay a lot of attention, that is understood. For the more casual viewer - even one who doesn't want Harper to have a majority - the perception is a concern.

So I just instinctively reflex against anything that even tacitly implies that a majority is off the table.

I'm still convinced it would be a far different dynamic in play in the US now if not for the casualness with which progressives played their hand - or just sat out - in the US in 2000.

The Mound of Sound said...

I'm 100% in agreement on that

ottlib said...

Conservatives: 125-130
Liberals: 110-115

The rest divided amongst the other parties, with Elizabeth May being one of the Green Party MPs.

That would not be a bad result and I believe it would set up a Liberal majority in about 12-18 months. Provided the Liberals keep their heads and rally behind Mr. Dion after the election.

As you say MoS the Conservatives had the advantage of a good economy and Liberal surpluses in their first kick of the can. This time around it will be much different and history has demonstrated that incumbent governments rarely fare well during elections that occur during or immediately after a recession.

The Mound of Sound said...

I hear you on that, Ott-Lib. Are those your seat projections?

Canadian press just put out a story that Harper's "strong fundamentals" line isn't going over with voters. The trouble is, I don't think he has a plan B (not that he actually had a plan A either).

Anonymous said...

For generations upon generations (upon generations)... Canadians have been bouncing back and forth between the Liberal and Conservative parties.

Haven't we learned anything from this model yet?

I'm not suggesting that we should turf both or either of these parties out of politics because we're ready for an NDP Majority or a GREEN PARTY majority (We aren't ready and it would never happen anyway...).

...What I am suggesting is that maybe having "majority" governments don't really work to begin with.

I will vote NDP or GREEN this election... (not because I believe that either will actually win, or even because I agree with everything that Layton or May stand for... I don't)... but either the NDP or GREENS gets my vote this election because I am solidly and fundamentally against putting ANY single political group in complete and total control anymore.

How many more decades do we have to live under "Conservative" or "Liberal" rule? You may argue (as a Liberal...) that one dictator is better than another, but my interests as a Canadian aren't adequately covered by EITHER of the big two and I've been disappointed by both for DECADES now.

We need a few "watchdog parties" in there... small groups that are just big enough to keep the "big two" raging behemoths in check.

Giving the NDP or the GREENS a few more seats in the house, produces the kind of government where things actually get done in a more democratic way. The process might take a bit longer but the results are a lot more moderate.

A minority government forces the leaders from ALL parties to bend and compromise in order to better accommodate one another.

To better accomodate "US".

It's give and take... Harper might need Layton's support on an issue and Layton will give it to him under certain favourable conditions... Dion might need May to back him up against Harper and compromises will be made...

One hand washes the other.

Minority governments tend to yield moderate, fair results for ALL Canadians (not just the left or the right because they're in power...again)! It forces these "leaders" to work a little harder at "leading".

Canada's "moderates" deserve representation too! Let's force these people to work together for EVERYBODY's best interests... not just their own.

The Mound of Sound said...

Bill, is that you? The style and tone seem to be yours.
I wish I was as confident in the merits of minority government but, judging by the current government's record, I'm not.
Do you really believe that Martin could have wrestled the national deficit under control if Chretien had only a minority government? The Libs would have been eaten alive for political advantage without the majority they needed to see that reform through - even though the Canadian people themselves supported it.
There's been very little "moderate" to the Harper administration. Covert, yes; underhanded, yes; secretive, absolutely. Those things, however, aren't signs of moderation just because they're done quietly.
Gagging the public service isn't an act of moderation. Gagging the Canadian Forcese isn't an act of moderation. Channeling all their communications with the Canadian public through a propaganda mill operated by political commissars in the PMO isn't moderate, it isn't Canadian, it isn't democratic. It's just the opposite on every count.
Ordering Canadian forces in Kandahar to stand down during the election campaign isn't patriotic my friend. It's exploitation and manipulation. That's not moderate.
Transparent, accountable government yields moderation. That's what Mr. Harper promised only to deliver secrecy and unaccountability.
No, unfortunately, the past two and a half years undermines your case for minority government.
Mr. Harper has put so much of his energy into staying in a permanent campaign mode these past two years that he's done nothing to deal with the financial headache that's spilling over from Wall Street. He just went along to get along. I don't know what your investments look like today but I know exactly what mine look like and it's not very pretty.

Anonymous said...

I'm not Bill... (LOL)

Minority government isn't the problem... having a guy like Harper as the minority PM is the problem.

He's like a tiny dog who thinks he's bigger than he actually is. He barks alot and really loudly and he might even succeed in scaring or cowwing fellow leaders within the minority to see things his way... but take away a few more of his seats and watch that all change.

If polls are any indication... it looks like things are going in exactly that direction right now.

HARPER is a disaster... I won't argue it for a moment. But I'm not nuts about Dion as a leader either because he's a mess too! I often find myself wondering how these guys are the best that our country can produce...

I still say that a minority government is the way to go right now. HARPER is the kind of politician who will overlook the limits of his democratically awarded power and push his agenda as if he's a majority leader.

Take a few more seats from him and you'll force him to realise he's actually the leader of a "minority" government and that his "well-oiled" machine isn't running on all 8 cylinders right now.

Harper's attitude and position need to be "democratically changed" and forcefully so. Harper needs to be "voted down" to a level where he's a bit more humble. A level of power where he's obligated to "open up" to the notion of coming to the table with the best intentions for all parties involved... instead of trying to push his agenda through as if he has the majority.

Regardless of whether you want it or not... it looks like we're going to get another minority government. A minority government where Harper has less power than he currently wields but the other parties can contribute to the well-balanced outcome of a successful Canada that caters to the needs of a greater number of Canadians. Not just the ones to the right or to the left.

Is that such a bad thing? Cuz I'll tell you, a Liberal majority government right now... isn't the ideal thing either.

My investments? No so bad actually... I tore a page out of DUDDY KRAVITZ and bought a bunch of land a number of years ago for a song. The values might be fluctuating from year to year but they'll never go lower than what I paid so I'm not too concerned.

I'm sure my tune would be quite a bit different if I had gotten into the stock market, so I feel for you.

The Mound of Sound said...

I'm just guessing Anon but I suspect that without some electoral breakthrough, Harper's days in Ottawa are numbered. He's not a nice guy and there are a lot of people within his party who are both resentful of the bully boy and ambitious enough to do something about it.
Harper really stacked the deck on this election, exploiting a perfect moment. I doubt the opposition will fall for that twice.
As for Dion? I wish I had any idea of what lies in store for the Libs after the election.
Not much to do except stay tuned.

Cheers