Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Arms Race Update - Russian Warships to Syria


One geopolitical goal of the United States is to get the Russian navy out of Sevastapol, its Black Sea base in the Ukraine's Crimean peninsula. The idea is that, without this base, the Russian navy's ability to project power in the Meditterranean is crippled.

Russia, which despite what John McCain says, is sliding back into Cold War mode, is moving to counter the US by establishing a naval base in Syria. Now, according to The Guardian, the Syrian fishing port of Tartous is being dredged to make way for the Russian fleet:

"Tartous is being dredged and renovated to provide a permanent facility for the Russian navy, giving Moscow a key military foothold in the Mediterranean at a time when Russia's invasion of Georgia has led to fears of a new cold war.

The bolstering of military ties between Russia and Syria has also worried Israel, whose prime minister, Ehud Olmert, was in Moscow yesterday seeking to persuade the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, to stop Russian arms sales to Syria and Iran. Mr Olmert later said he had received assurances that Russia would not allow Israel's security to be threatened, but offered no indication he won any concrete promises on Russian arms sales.

Igor Belyaev, Russia's charge d'affaires in Damascus, recently told reporters that his country would increase its presence in the Mediterranean and that "Russian vessels will be visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently".

That announcement followed a meeting between Medvedev and the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, at the Black sea port of Sochi in the immediate aftermath of Russia's victory over Georgian forces and its recognition of the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia - actions Assad supported.
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The move is giving Israel fits. The prospect of a reinvigorated Russian-Syrian military alliance is troublesome. Russia is already talking about selling Syria a sophisticated surface to air missile system the only obvious target for which would be Israeli warplanes wandering into Syrian airspace.

The Guardian also mentions that modern Russian anti-tank weapons found their way into the hands of Hizbollah during the 2006 war with Israel and resulted in the destruction of some 40-Israeli Merkova tanks.

Moscow will be watching the votes come in on November 4 and it's a safe bet that a McCain victory would only ratchet up Russian efforts to counter America's muscle in the Middle East.

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