Monday, January 06, 2014

The World in 2050 As Goldman Sachs Sees It

Goldman Sachs and the World Bank foresee global GDP expanding massively  over the next 35-years.  Whereas today, America's economic GDP is the world's largest at over $16-trillion, by 2050 China's GDP will have soared to over $52-trillion, dwarfing America's then $34-trillion.  Canada's GDP will drop from 11th place to 16th.

What's not addressed in these projections is where mankind will find the energy and other natural resources to support this enhanced economic activity.  We're already using the Earth's renewables at half again the natural replenishment rate.  To increase the global economy fourfold in 35-years is more than exponential growth.  What must the boys at Goldman see in store for 2100?


Hugh said...

Their prediction is out to lunch. GDP will probably drop if anything. GDP growth requires cheap, abundant energy.

The Mound of Sound said...

I think you're right, Hugh. The amount of energy (and other resources) that would be needed to expand the global economy fourfold would be enormous, beyond the scale of fossil fuels.

Richard said...

GDP is just a number which they constantly change the calculations of. Currency is just a number banks increase at will.

Where will they get the energy? You're assuming the very definition of GDP will remain constant as in some way shape or form providing some benefit. They'll find the energy all right, through prison labour/enslavement, wars, new "financial instruments" and the diversion of everything everyone needs to survive to feed the machine. When disaster strikes they'll secretly cheer for the "GDP" in rebuilding everything. We will be a snake eating it's own tail, printing currency the whole way to pump up the markets and "GDP".

There's all sorts of "economic efficiencies" coming down the pipe, if we let them have their GDP.