"The Greatest Water Grab in History"

Across south and east Asia, water is power.   If you want to know why China invaded and seized Tibet, it was the water.

New academic research shows that India, Nepal, Bhutan and Pakistan are engaged in a huge "water grab" in the Himalayas, as they seek new sources of electricity to power their economies. Taken together, the countries have plans for more than 400 hydro dams which, if built, could together provide more than 160,000MW of electricity – three times more than the UK uses.

In addition, China has plans for around 100 dams to generate a similar amount of power from major rivers rising in Tibet. A further 60 or more dams are being planned for the Mekong river which also rises in Tibet and flows south through south-east Asia.

China, which is building multiple dams on all the major rivers running off the Tibetan plateau, is likely to emerge as the ultimate controller of water for nearly 40% of the world's population. "The plateau is the source of the single largest collection of international rivers in the world, including the Mekong, the Brahmaputra, the Yangtse and the Yellow rivers. It is the headwater of rivers on which nearly half the world depends. The net effect of the dam building could be disastrous. We just don't know the consequences," said Tashi Tseri, a water resource researcher at the University of British Columbia in Canada.

"China is engaged in the greatest water grab in history. Not only is it damming the rivers on the plateau, it is financing and building mega-dams in Pakistan, Laos, Burma and elsewhere and making agreements to take the power," said Indian geopolitical analyst Brahma Chellaney. "China-India disputes have shifted from land to water. Water is the new divide and is going centre stage in politics. Only China has the capacity to build these mega-dams and the power to crush resistance. This is effectively war without a shot being fired."

Damming rivers is a potentially high-risk gambit in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.  It brings insecurity to downstream nations that can raise tensions with upstream countries building dams and other water diversion projects.  Iraq is facing this problem, particularly from Turkey and Syria threatening the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.   Egypt, utterly dependent on the Nile, faces a similar challenge from its ten upstream neighbours and, for decades, it has threatened to bomb any dams they might dare build.

How China jostles with India and India with Pakistan over access to Himalayan water routes is unclear.   These water projects are being driven by climate change but that's a problem that will continue to worsen and shift regional rivalries.

No one knows ...about the impact of climate change on the rivers. The dams are all being built in rivers that are fed by glaciers and snowfields which are melting at a fast rate," said Tsering.

Climate models suggest that major rivers running off the Himalayas, after increasing flows as glaciers melt, could lose 10-20% of their flow by 2050. This would not only reduce the rivers' capacity to produce electricity, but would exacerbate regional political tensions.