The United States is bracing for another major terrorist attack. Embassies are shuttered, the nation is on high alert. Terrorist signals traffic is said to be higher than at any time since 9/11.
Are Islamist extremists really preparing to attack? Are they, perhaps, simply rattling America's chain? Should we even take the Americans' claims at face value after the scams they pulled in the aftermath of the World Trade Center/Pentagon attacks?
The main question, however, must surely be "what if?" What if America is attacked again in a fashion as dramatic at the 9/11 attacks?
America today is a much different nation than it was right up to the 10th of September, 2001. The world has changed a great deal also over the past dozen years.
If an al-Qaeda group (there are several) managed to smuggle in and detonate a dirty nuclear bomb that contaminated a major U.S. city with lethal radioactive dust, how does the United States respond? Who does it attack?
This time does it go after the under-the-table sponsors of Wahabist terrorism - the ruling families of the Gulf states? Does it take down the House of Saud and the ruling dynasties of the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait?
An American attack on the Gulf states? Incomprehensible. Not only would it drive them into the waiting arms of America's rivals, notably China, it would also improve Iran's strategic influence in the region.
And what of Congress? In 2001, America wasn't beset by a dysfunctional Congress. The House hadn't fallen to mass lunacy. That was then, this is now. In 2001, the U.S. Congress was disturbingly complacent, easily spooked and gullible but, for all that, it was neither hyper-partisan nor as abjectly dysfunctional as it stands today - reflective of a nation also torn.
And who pays for more war? In 2001, the U.S. was still basking in the balanced budget and budgetary surplus days of the Clinton administration. It had a massive, standing army bristling with new weaponry and flush with fresh troops. Today, a dozen years hence, the American state is mired in debt - federal, state, municipal and individual - with an economy just creeping out of the abyss of 2008. The military has fought two massive and unsuccessful wars, its equipment now worn out and its troops exhausted.
And will America's creditors play along again? Bush/Cheney were unabashed charlatans who waged two insanely expensive wars, largely financed with foreign borrowings, while cutting taxes for the rich and running massive wartime deficits. Bad as that was, they waged their wars ineptly without meaningful result. Who would invest in a repeat of that?
And who goes to war alongside America? In Afghanistan and Iraq, America went to war with the support of many other nations including NATO itself. Will any of these countries go down that miserable road again should America be once more attacked? What of article 5 of the NATO Charter? Could Washington again invoke the Charter to call NATO members to arms? If it did, would they respond?
And what of the American people, the rank and file who are saddled with the debts of Afghanistan and Iraq and sinking in debt as they watch the rich sail off on the ever rising tide of inequality-fueled prosperity? Could they possibly have the appetite for more war, would they muster in answer to another enlistment whip-round from Washington?
For all of these reasons and more, this just may be a serious threat revealing a determination to launch a spectacular attack on America. The United States stands weakened in so many ways, most of them of its own doing. As Churchill used Bomber Command to create the illusion that Britain was carrying the war to Hitler, Obama has used drones to create an illusion that the U.S. held the upper hand in the war against Islamist extremism.
al Qaeda has always focused on maximizing return on effort through devastating psychological impacts. If they do attack now, it will be because they have calculated that America stands weakened and vulnerable.
8 comments:
I suspect that this so-called terror alert is merely either a distraction from or an attempt to justify the concerns about NSA spying on Americans, terra folk and essentially everyone on earth!
Oddly Monday morning I haven't heard boo about the big threat.
That could be, Koot, but, for an enemy like al Qaeda, it's hard to imagine a better moment to stage some dramatic attack. As a distraction I just don't see this being very useful to Washington.
I think I'm with Koot on this one. aQ only has to hint at something, and the US battens down the hatches. Why spend money and lives when a little strategically placed chatter will do nicely.
So, either aQ has been chattering and the US is freaking out, or the US is pointing at the shiny thing because they don't want you paying attention to something more worrisome.
My other thought is that when the powers that be think that population is becoming too uppity, they have to trot out a "terror plot" to get them back in line.
Personally I'm sick to death of it.
GAB
Well, GAB, that's 2-1 but I remain of the view that America is incredibly vulnerable to this sort of body blow today, perhaps as vulnerable as it's ever going to be. It's enemies are very shrewd about this sort of thing, quick to exploit weakness.
My wife also immediately thought, "Are they just trying to turn the channel from/create a justification for going after Snowden?"
The line basically, "No, we really do have to spy on everyone, and it really is useful, look look we saw them saying dangerous things! So quit trying to pass limits on NSA powers in Congress already, and stop calling Snowden a hero!"
I don't know. What kind of threat exactly would cause them to shut a bunch of embassies on spec? It seems odd. But who knows, maybe it is something real. The FBI have provided lots of poor slobs with wolf suits, but I suppose that doesn't mean there aren't any real wolves at all.
That's the problem, isn't it, PLG? As I noted in the premise of this piece, we don't know if the US has picked up signs of an imminent al Qaeda attack or if they're just gaming us again. That's why this piece is focused on "what if". What if America was attacked, what then?
I was hoping to consider where today's America would be if it found itself in another 9/11 moment? How is the U.S. today different than it was the day after 9/11? How robust/weak/vulnerable might it be? Is the U.S. a more enticing target today than it was in September, 2001?
As I see it, the ordeal of the past decade the U.S. has put itself and everyone else through has left it weakened, more vulnerable, a target more easily gored. That, in turn, would give its extremist enemies - who gauge this sort of thing rather well - every incentive to strike now as opposed to waiting until America becomes stronger over the next few years.
Well, if something big does happen, I expect the Americans will blame Syria and invade.
The only question is whether they'll claim Iran was in on it too. Not sure if they're feeling up to Iran yet.
I don't think the war-weary American public would tolerate another war of whim at this point, PLG. Besides, can you even imagine what 'victory' in Syria would look like?
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