Sunday, March 31, 2019

Britain Braces for "Hottest Spring Ever" What's Coming Our Way?

Yesterday Alaska set a record for the earliest 70 degree day ever recorded.

Parts of the UK hit 90 F. Next up for the Brits is a blast of Arctic air followed by what is expected to be the hottest spring ever.

Now, as Canadians are just emerging from a protracted winter, it's good to refresh our understanding of what lies ahead for the next four years. IT'S GONNA BE HOT, VERY HOT.

[Last] summer's world-wide heatwave made 2018 a particularly hot year. As will be the next few years, according to a study led by Florian Sévellec, a CNRS researcher at the Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Remote Sensing (LOPS) (CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/University of Brest) and at the University of Southampton, and published in the 14 August 2018 edition of Nature Communications. Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018-2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.

Warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not linear: it appears to have lapsed in the early 21st century, a phenomenon known as a global warming hiatus. A new method for predicting mean temperatures, however, suggests that the next few years will likely be hotter than expected. 
The system, developed by researchers at CNRS, the University of Southampton and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, does not use traditional simulation techniques. Instead, it applies a statistical method to search 20th and 21st century climate simulations made using several reference models (1) to find 'analogues' of current climate conditions and deduce future possibilities. The precision and reliability of this probabilistic system proved to be at least equivalent to current methods, particularly for the purpose of simulating the global warming hiatus of the beginning of this century. 
The new method predicts that mean air temperature may be abnormally high in 2018-2022 -- higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. In particular, this is due to a low probability of intense cold events. The phenomenon is even more salient with respect to sea surface temperatures, due to a high probability of heat events, which, in the presence of certain conditions, can cause an increase in tropical storm activity. 
Think back to last summer - heatwaves, drought, wildfires especially the Paradise disaster. Out here on the Pacific, that heat translates into wildfires and severe smoke pollution, the pm 2.5 stuff.

I had to rig my house with air purifiers last year to keep the air inside safe to breathe. This year it'll be new blinds to block the afternoon sun. I don't want to resort to air conditioning.

This is probably a good time to begin planning for what you'll need for the summer and the summers that are coming after that.


Anonymous said...

First Forest fire of the “season” flared up yesterday in Chase,

A week after the snow melted.

The Mound of Sound said...

I came across a comment on another blog yesterday from a fellow in Nanaimo who mentioned the soil there is so dry he's already begun watering his plants. Could that be an omen for what awaits us this summer?