Sunday, December 10, 2006

Talking Taliban


A somber if realistic assessment of why the Afghanistan mission isn't working and what that means by Jason Burke in today's "Observer":

"One immutable law of insurgency warfare is that, while conventional armies need to win, insurgents need only to avoid losing. The disagreeable truth is that, though we are not losing the war in Afghanistan, we are not winning. Neither, looking at the current situation, are we likely to.

"This means a fairly stark choice. We can struggle on, as in Iraq, losing men and money for years until an Afghan version of the James Baker report tells us to change tack - or we change tack now.

"We need to work out what went wrong. Letting Afghanistan rot for four years after the war of 2002 was a tragic error. The Americans, who were then responsible for the southeast, showed a cavalier disregard for reconstruction, treating the region as a hunting ground for special forces.

"On successive trips to Afghanistan, I saw local people go from pragmatic and relatively hopeful, to sulking and disappointed, to bluntly antagonistic. The Taliban's strategic good sense made a tough job tougher. Soldiers from the Parachute Regiment sent into Helmand province this spring were well prepared. Sadly, their mission changed when they got to Afghanistan. From tough peacekeeping, it became fierce 'war fighting'.

"We need to admit that there is unlikely to be a significant improvement in the near future. There is no sign that the crucial safe havens exploited by the Taliban in Pakistan are likely to disappear soon. The movement's ideological, ethnic, religious, commercial, political and military networks there would take decades to dismantle - even if Islamabad found the will or means to do so. In addition, the pitifully weak commitment of key Nato partners, such as France and Germany, is unlikely to stiffen soon. The French are pulling troops out, while the Germans' rules of engagement render them useless.

"There are also the sensitivities of Western populations. Partly because of the bitter experience of Iraq, European voters are not keen on the Afghan fighting and will not tolerate high casualties or expense. The Taliban know this. With these problems, the vicious cycle of 'no security, so no reconstruction, so no security' will not be broken. We won't lose the war, but neither will the Taliban.

"There is a hard core of fanatics who will fight to the last. But they can be isolated because others can be bought off, frightened, reasoned with or tempted into a partnership with the central Afghan government. That means talking to the Taliban, unpalatable though that may seem.

"Sadly, a pragmatic approach is the best bet to avoid a long-drawn-out, expensive and unsuccessful war. We cannot afford more errors."

Burke is probably right. Hamid Karzai certainly knows he must deal with the Taliban. He's been making overtures to them for some time.

Maybe we can talk to the Taliban - eventually. All indications, however, point to a major spring offensive by the insurgency that will have to be defeated first. They're betting on winning, not talking.

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