Sunday, December 10, 2006

The Iraq Syndrome


When the last helicopter left Saigon, America experienced what became known as the Vietnam Syndrome. It was many things but the main element was the loss of any public appetite for military adventures abroad.

Today, some say America is already undergoing the Iraq Syndrome, a loss of popular support for the US effort in Iraq and a desperate wish that it would all go away. George Bush can't win in Iraq but he's also losing at home. The Toronto Star ran a report of a conference in Boston this year featuring such heavy-hitters from the Vietnam war as Kissinger, Alexander Haig, Walter Cronkite and LBJ advisor Jack Valenti:

"Former LBJ special assistant Valenti also saw clear connections between the wars — ones that, on reflection, might even apply to Canada's involvement in Afghanistan.

"The primary thing Valenti learned during Vietnam was as simple as it was crucial: "You cannot fight a war without public support.

"'The second thing is, you cannot, no matter what mighty army you have, conquer a foreign land, you cannot win against an insurgency that springs from the population with their traditions and their religion and their culture. It has never been done in history, in Afghanistan, in Dien Bien Phu (France's defeat in Vietnam) or in the American colonies — you name it. There has never been an insurgency that didn't prevail against a mighty power.

"'The third thing I learned was that if you're going to fight an enemy, you've got to know who they are. You've got to know their ancestral rhythms and their traditions, their mores, their customs.'

"The Bush administration no longer enjoys a majority of public support for the Iraq war; it has not — and likely will not — prevail against an ever-mounting insurgency; and it has demonstrated little respect, let alone knowledge of, Iraqi customs — especially when it comes to religion.

"Most troubling of all, perhaps, was Valenti's revelation that "60 to 70 per cent" of all Pentagon estimates and forecasts during the Vietnam War 'turned out to be wrong.'"

Barring some great breakthroughs, it's hard to see how 'the mission' in Afghanistan will succeed. Let's hope that Canada can leave Afghanistan with its military intact and the public still willing to support peacekeeping, the sort of thing that's in short supply at the moment around the world.

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