Wednesday, May 30, 2018

$4.5 Billion? Try $20 Billion.

What a fitting legacy for a double dealing prime minister, a pipeline fiasco. He may not like it but Justin Trudeau's name will forever be tied to a bitumen tube.

Dick Hatfield had his Bricklin. Brian Peckford had his cucumber farm. Justin Trudeau blows them both out of the water with his Trans Mountain pipeline. Long after no one can remember what a Bricklin was, the memory of Trudeau and his pipeline will survive. Stains that big are hard to erase or forget.

Pierre Trudeau will forever be remembered for the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Justin, well, he'll have to settle for a climate-wrecking pipeline.

Yesterday, Bill "Job Churn" Morneau, announced the feds had decided to shell out $4.5 billion to take the son of Enron, Texas-based Kinder Morgan, off the hook for the Trans Mountain pipeline. Yet this is a government that is not disposed to truth-telling. Remember when Junior called those Saudi death wagons mere "jeeps"? Better yet, do you remember Slick's election promises? Oh, weren't we royally suckered?

Now The Tyee's Tar Sands scribe, Andrew Nikiforuk, writes that the $4.5 billion price tag Morneau announced yesterday is just more Liberal bullshit. Try something closer to $20 billion. That's the cost according to economist Robyn Allan.
The $4.5-billion purchase price only buys a leaking 65-year-old pipeline, an aging tanker farm not built to withstand earthquakes, and a port facility as well as engineering plans and permits for the twinning of a high-risk expansion project.

In 2007, Kinder Morgan reported to the National Energy Board that it valued the Trans Mountain pipeline system at $550 million.

Let’s repeat that fact: the federal government will pay $4.5 billion for an old and compromised tanker and pipeline system that the company valued at $550 million in 2007.
“The federal government have overpaid for an aging asset that has huge integrity problems. Every year they have to spend more on maintenance to keep it running,” added Allan. 
Next, taxpayers are on the hook for the cost of twinning the project — an estimated $7.4 billion and climbing. 
Given the iron law of megaprojects (overbudget and over schedule over and over again), Allan expects the final construction bill to be more than $9 billion.] 
Then you have $2.1 billion in financial assurance that the government will have to put up for land-based spills. 
According to the Pipeline Safety Act, $1 billion in financial assurances for the existing pipeline was in place based on a $500-million parental guarantee from Kinder Morgan. 
As a condition of the pipeline expansion the federal government has required another $1.1 billion. 
Taxpayers will also be responsible for $1.5 billion for the so-called ocean protection plan — every five years.
“In the end the federal government is looking at a $15- to $20-billion bill for taxpayers,” concluded Allan.
...Kinder Morgan, which could no longer afford the $7.4-billion project, took advantage of a bitumen republic that foolishly proclaimed an unneeded pipeline a matter of “national interest” without so much as a risk analysis or simple cost benefit report. 
The only studies that say the Trans Mountain pipeline will make money for the Canadian economy are reports paid for by Kinder Morgan. Critics including Allan have described these biased reports as fraudulent.  
When Canadian taxpayers appreciate the scale of the federal abuse of trust here as well as the government’s blatant corporate welfare for a Texas pipeline company, there will be hell to pay from coast to coast.


Anonymous said...

I suspect Justin and Bill are lousy poker players.


rumleyfips said...

Andrew, Owen and you have all make a mistake os omission. You have left income out of the equation. By trying to sluff this off , environmentalists look like fools who can't do the math. Not good for our side.

Lorne said...

When it becomes a matter of taxpayers' dollars being misspent, even for those who don't follow politics, Mound, this could prove to be the moment when Justin "jumped the shark."

The Mound of Sound said...

Well, Rumley, as soon as you can tell us what's in those order books (they say they've got two thirds of the capacity sold but no one is letting anyone see the contracts) or the future of bitumen in world markets in a decade or two, revenues are a mere abstraction. Do send me the numbers when you get them and, if you're getting those numbers from Morneau or Trudeau, some independent source of corroboration.

rumleyfips said...

Here's where started

I need to see if the oil companies are still in business; it was 5 years ago.

The new contracts are for $4.50 to $5.5o ; about $5.00 a barrel. I estimated ( guessed ) that it costs about $3 now. Transporting a bit over 300,000 barrels a day, Kinder Morgan's daily income is roughly a million dollars. Extrapolate to 20 years.

The contracts from the thirteen oil companies call for 400,000 barrels a day at $5 or 2 million dollars a day. Again extrapolate over 20 years.

Yes the demand for Alberta filth will drop, but I don't want to be associated with an argument so easily debunked.

John's Aghast said...

Wow Rumley. That's ALMOST $15 Billion return on a $20 Billion investment! IF it runs autonomously, IF the contracts are real, IF there are no spills. Too many ifs. IF I put $20 in the bank today I would hope to get more than $15 back twenty years from now!
Trewdough had best chuck his $4.9 Billion in the 'sunk costs' basket and pick another target to 'Make Canada Great Again'

rumleyfips said...

No John, it' ~$22B income over 20 years. Costs will rise for the new pipeline but in total it will be ~15-16B total.

Please stick to facts or the attacks on us as dangerous lunatics will become justified.

I just checked the thirteen companies listed in the link above. They all have a web presence with post in 2018.

John's Aghast said...

Rumley. Your numbers, $2 million/day = $730 million/year. $730 million x 20 years = $14.6 Billion. That's income. Less costs.

My numbers: $15 Billion @ 10% over 20 years = $120 Billion.

The thirteen companies may have a presence in 2018 but its doubtful they'll be around in 2038, especially if they've signed on to this scheme!

rumleyfips said...

John: The numbers are based on $1m?day from the existing line and $2/day from the proposed line. That is $3/day.

thwap said...

So leaving aside projected revenues (that didn't impress the boys from Enron apparently), Trudeau will spend $20 billion to alienate British Columbia, be on the hook for building a tanker facility and cleaning up (impossible) any spills/ royally pissing off the First Nations (and their allies), gambling that bitumen will remain profitable, getting the permanent loyalty of the voters of Alberta (little joke there), betraying the international movement against climate change; ....

etc., etc., I guess.

I think this is more what MoS said recently; this is probably more about bailing-out Bay Street banks that had invested in this scam (as Canada's business elites are wont to do).

the salamander said...

.. without knowing who the crucial 13 companies are..
how many are on the hook re tailings lakes cleanup ?
What is the Vegas betting line.. they will fold and walk away ?

Askin for my son..