Tuesday, January 16, 2007

The End in Sight


George Bush is hoping to run out the clock on Iraq and for him that comes in November, 2008 when Americans elect his replacement.

In the meantime Bush is going to try to keep the occupation ticking over, even if that means pulling back and hunkering down.

What about the surge? That's a gimmick. To have any chance of working it would need the wholehearted support of the Iraqi government and of its army. It has neither.

The surge will play out in some scripted fashion over the coming months. The Maliki government will try to direct the US effort against the Sunni insurgency rather than his own supporters in the Shia militias. That will allow Maliki to go through the motions of crushing the Shiite militias.

For Maliki also has an eye on the clock as do Iran, Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia. They know that, in less than two years, the America public will redefine their country's role in the Middle East. If American voters turn isolationist, all bets are off among the Middle East powers and there's no point in taking steps now that you may come to regret so soon.

If the White House goes along with the game, the surge may actually appear to be succeeding as the insurgents lay low, their own eyes fixed on the clock. If, however, US forces take an unwelcome, aggressive posture, their targets will probably fight back and put American soldiers into the door-to-door, urban warfare nightmare that their leaders have dreaded since before the first tank rolled across the Iraq border.

Either way, the end is in sight and the regional players have as much to gain as Washington by simply letting the clock run out.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yes, everything points to the final outcome. The Battle for Sadr City. Defeat for the Americans mean the emergence of Shia ascendency, the evolution of an alliance between Iran, Russia, and China, and the a remaking of the Middle East. Victory means the holding on of the status quo, one that no longer can be kept in light of Bush's neo-cons upsetting the apple cart. There is nothing for us to do but sit down and enjoy. Don't you love the New World (Dis)Order of the Bushes?

The Mound of Sound said...

I can't see what there is to enjoy in any of this sorry business. This whole, foolish adventure has been such a waste of innocent lives.