Monday, January 15, 2007

Has Ahmadinejad's Time Run Out?


In a perverse way, he's served America's interests in the Middle East very well. Iran's president Mahmound Ahmadinejad's stupid statements and antics have let Washington depict Iran as a nuclear peril to the world and a state bent on using that weapon, when they eventually develop it, to threaten or even annihilate Israel.

Now the first, hesitant signs are emerging that the stage is being set for Ahmadinejad's ouster.

The Guardian reports on a parliamentary revolt in Tehran:

"In an unprecedented rebuke, 150 parliamentarians signed a letter blaming Mr Ahmadinejad for raging inflation and high unemployment and criticising his government's failure to deliver the budget on time. They also condemned him for embarking on a tour of Latin America - from which he returns tomorrow - at a time of mounting crisis.

"The signatories included a majority of the president's former fundamentalist allies, now apparently seeking to distance themselves as his prestige wanes.

"MPs also criticised Mr Ahmadinejad's role in the UN security council dispute over Iran's nuclear programme amid growing evidence that the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered him to stay silent on the issue.

"The supreme leader, who was hitherto loyal to the president, is said to blame Mr Ahmadinejad for last month's UN resolution imposing sanctions over Iran's refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment.

"Ayatollah Khamenei has ultimate authority on foreign policy, and is rumoured to be so disillusioned with Mr Ahmadinejad's performance that he has refused to meet him on occasion.

"But Iran's deepening economic woes, which prompted Sunday's letter from MPs, suggest that the worst may have yet to come for a man elected on promises to raise living standards and distribute the nation's oil wealth more evenly.

"Those pledges jar with increasingly grim realities. Inflation is higher than when Mr Ahmadinejad took office 17 months ago, while unemployment, officially estimated at 12% but probably much higher, has not improved.

"Uncontrolled inflation has resulted in soaring food prices and has had a drastic effect on the housing market. Anecdotal evidence suggests house prices and rents in Tehran have risen 50% in six months.

"In a poignant development, the government plans to ration petrol to cut rising import costs incurred by Iran's lack of refinery capacity. The proposal gives an ironic twist to Mr Ahmadinejad's election promise to put the country's oil wealth "on people's tables".

If Ahmadinejad is ousted Washington would lose its last best argument for maintaining a powerful military presence in the Gulf. It could also become much more difficult for Washington to sever links between Tehran and the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad. In other words, this might be a move that the White House would have no reason to welcome.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Note that the hard core Ahmadinejad supporters are about 20 per cent of the Iranian population. About the same number of people supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon and al-Sadr in Iraq. In factional Mideast politics, this alliance represents the most successful organizers. Let's put it this way, who can give Israel a bloody nose since 1967?

The irony is that neo-cons in Washington and Tehran believe that a Mideast crisis benefits them the most. Both are seeking to change the Mideast map and have the capability to do so. Scary stuff.