Hard to say if Ali Allawi is giving George Bush a taste of pre-emption but he sure isn't pulling any punches on what went wrong in the occupation of Iraq and where he believes peace is to be found.
Writing in The Indpendent, Allawi made it clear the invasion and occupation were botched:
"The Iraqi state that was formed in the aftermath of the First World War has come to an end. Its successor state is struggling to be born in an environment of crises and chaos. The collapse of the entire order in the Middle East now threatens as the Iraq imbroglio unleashes forces in the area that have been gathering in virulence over the past decades.
"It took the American-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, and the mismanagement of the country by both the Coalition Provisional Administration and subsequent Iraqi governments, to bring matters to this dire situation.
"What was supposed to be a straightforward process of overthrowing a dictatorship and replacing it with a liberal-leaning and secular democracy under the benign tutelage of the United States, has instead turned into an existential battle for identity, power and legitimacy that is affecting not only Iraq, but the entire tottering state system in the Middle East."
Right, so it's all screwed up and Iraq is a destabilizing danger to the entire Middle East. Got that.
"The seeds of another 100 years of crisis are being sown, with the Middle East consigned to decades of turbulence and the persistence of unmitigated hatreds and grudges. The most serious issue that is emerging is the exacerbation of sectarian differences between Shia and Sunni. That is a profoundly dangerous issue for it affects not only Iraq but also Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon and the Gulf countries.
"It is plausible that the cost of a Shia ascendancy in Iraq, if it is marked as such, will be further pressure on the vulnerable Shia communities in the Gulf countries. There is already the rekindling of anti-Shia rhetoric in a remarkably similar rerun to the pattern that accompanied the Saudi-led campaign to contain the Iranian revolution in the 1980s. The effect of that was the rise of the jihadi culture that was the harbinger of mass terrorism and suicide bombings.
"This may drag the entire area into war or even the forced movement of people as fearful countries seek to "quarantine" or expel their Shia population."
Allawi sees five steps necessary to resolve the Iraq and greater Middle East dilemma:
"The first step must be the recognition that the solution to the Iraq crisis must be generated first internally, and then, importantly, at the regional level. The two are linked and the successful resolution of one would lead to the other.
"No foreign power, no matter how benevolent, should be allowed to dictate the terms of a possible historic and stable settlement in the Middle East. No other region of the world would tolerate such a wanton interference in its affairs.
"That is not to say that due consideration should not be given to the legitimate interests of the great powers in the area, but the future of the area should not be held hostage to their designs and exclusive interests.
"Secondly, the basis of a settlement must take into account the fact that the forces that have been unleashed by the invasion of Iraq must be acknowledged and accommodated. These forces, in turn, must accept limits to their demands and claims. That would apply, in particular, to the Shias and the Kurds, the two communities who have been seen to have gained from the invasion of Iraq.
"Thirdly, the Sunni Arab community must become convinced that its loss of undivided power will not lead to marginalisation and discrimination. A mechanism must be found to allow the Sunni Arabs to monitor and regulate and, if need be, correct, any signs of discrimination that may emerge in the new Iraqi state.
"Fourthly, the existing states surrounding Iraq feel deeply threatened by the changes there. That needs to be recognised and treated in any lasting deal for Iraq and the area.
"A way has to be found for introducing Iran and Turkey into a new security structure for the Middle East that would take into account their legitimate concerns, fears and interests. It is far better that these countries are seen to be part of a stable order for the area rather than as outsiders who need to be confronted and challenged."
The sad thing is that Allawi's vision is probably right. He has identified the thorny issues that beset Iraq and the Middle East generally and that also bind them together. I suspect he realizes that his proposals are too late. If they were to work it would be in the context of 2003, not 2007.
The Great Game is in play. There is already a Sunni versus Shiite proxy war that has already caused plenty of suffering and death in Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq and may soon surface in Afghanistan. The proxies, notably al-Qaeda for the Sunnis and Hezbollah and Hamas for the Shia, are free agents beyond the direct control of any particular state.
Allawi's proposals are also dependent upon the willingness of the United States to recognize that its days as the dominant and controlling influence in the Middle East are over. George Bush, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, Richard Perle, Doug Feith, Paul Wolfowitz and Ken Adelman have presided over the tragic events out of which Washington's authority has emerged gutted.
If America doesn't accept this new reality (of its own making) gracefully - and it won't - then this disaster is doomed to continue and worsen. However reality has never been George Bush's long suit. His is a faith-based fantasy of imaginary prowess that he cannot shed no matter how powerful the events arrayed against him.
Allawi's initiative is a non-starter but it does offer all of us a powerful matrix by which to measure America's new Iraq solutions to be unveiled next week by The Decider, George W. Bush.
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