Are We Ready for Our "Last Best Chance"?

In a matter of weeks the Taliban may launch their much-heralded Spring offensive.

There have been many stories published about what lies in store, a number of them featuring seemingly candid interviews with Taliban leaders. These accounts foretell a large-scale insurgent uprising that will overwhelm the minimal NATO and US forces, enabling Kandahar city to be taken as a springboard to capturing Kabul itself.

Some reports suggest an insurgent coalition forming that will include the Taliban, al-Qaeda, northern mujahadeen, druglords and disaffected nationalists.

This could all be a load of hype. On the other hand it could be NATO's last best chance to score a major victory.

As insurgents, the Taliban have NATO at a disadvantage. There is simply far too much territory to secure for the limited Western forces deployed in Afghanistan. Taking a target like a major city, however, will force the Taliban to fight a much more conventional battle of the very sort our soldiers are trained and equipped to win.

The options aren't very good. Either the Taliban overwhelm and thereby neutralize the NATO defenders at the outset or they will face our forces on our terms in a conventional battle in which we have all the heavy weapons. If they wish to regain control of Afghanistan, they don't have any other choices.

However it is just as likely that the Taliban will decide taking Afghanistan this year is not feasible and opt, instead, for simply accelerating the insurgency to inflict more damage on NATO and the Afghan army through guerrilla tactics.

With Bush obsessed with Iraq and US forces heavily tied down there, conditions for the Taliban might never be as favourable again. Even if Karzai survives the year, the events of the next few months may seal the destiny of Afghanistan one way or the other.